Our modern global world is built on several interlocking foundations, all of which are required for things to function in the way we have become accustomed to – cheap fuel, electricity on demand, political stability, banking systems, telecommunications, economic growth, plentiful and reasonably priced food, global trade, climatic stability. But our modern global world looks set to take a series of body blows from several converging crisis (as listed below). In our immediate future we as individuals and as communities must expect to deal with food shortages, fuel shortages (by supply or prohibitive pricing), economic turmoil (a major recession), sudden widespread unemployment, widespread psychological trauma, refugee movements and even worse, a scarcity of coffee & chocolate.
These situations may take a few years to unfold in a series of increments or may happen overnight if/when the US Iranian war commences, (The US has made clear its intentions)
It’s not the end of the world – just the world as we have known
and now we are going to have to do things differently.
Yes - a sustainability revolution in awareness and action has finally arrived which is great, and I for one fully celebrate and support the efforts of individuals, communities, business and governments that are taking up the challenge and will report on the best of them accordingly. However, it has to be recognised that this revolution is only here because the issues are so advanced that denial is no longer possible and this late in the day a soft landing is no longer possible, so I won’t be wasting your time or the planet’s with news of ‘50 year’ policy papers and the like, - such documents will only serve as tragic epitaphs.
In this first newsletter the reality of our situation and constructive ways forward are summarised, with more in-depth information and updates in future newsletters. Please email your feedback and any useful info you have to share – laurenceboomert@xtra.co.nz
If at any point you feel scared, dis-empowered, overwhelmed etc - remember 3 things 1.”Its just a ride” (Thanks Bill Hicks). 2.
If you only want to know the positive responses in this issue
just skip down to The Way Forward.
“Our biggest concern is that the system collapses.
Our next biggest concern is that it continues as it is”. W.A Jones
The Situation Enron Model Of World Management
SHAREHOLDERS REPORT
Climate change: –It's far worse and more immediate than you have been told. The tipping point has been reached, stable climate is out the window, expect mega extremities rising. The fascination value of watching celebrities' mansions burn will be overshadowed by the next crisis (and the next). Polar-melt tourism will seem increasingly tragic. Worrying about the polar bears is the least of your concerns, (weep later). If you live in a lucky place, get used to entertaining refugees – if you live in an unlucky place, get used to becoming a refugee.
Peak Oil: – It happened last year. Petrol is likely to rise by 20-30% over the next 18 months – if all goes well. If you are new to the Peak Oil concept it goes like this: Everything in modern global civilization runs on cheap oil. After the peak of world production, oil goes up in price changing the world economy & lifestyles reliant on cheap oil. Things will not run as smoothly, some things will not run at all. Up to 99% of the food supply is dependent on cheap oil. Oil Stops – Supermarket Stops – Gardening Starts - Old Zen saying. News to hand – Nov 1 - Oil hits $96 per barrel. Triple-digit levels next.
World Politics - A bit edgy. The world's got smaller, the resources are in decline and evolution is yet to happen. The
The Economy:
State of the Environment: Catastrophic collapse fully underway in most key areas: the coral reefs, phyto plankton (30% down at the equator), the Amazon, bees (90% down in some countries), Don't tell the kids . Maybe they won't notice what's gone. At last the question – can humans live without nature - will be answered. Read the LA times special report on the state of the oceans, July 30 - Aug. 3, 2006 http://www.latimes.com/news/local/oceans/la-oceans-series,0,7842752.special ... and weep.
Food production: Dramatic global declines due to drought, floods, erosion, pests, salination and the new demand for large areas of farmland to grow bio-diesel crops on.
Health. The effects of contaminating everyone and everything with thousands of chemicals and adulterated foodstuffs is - surprise, surprise – widespread ill health. Add to this the combined effects of environmental collapse, overcrowded slums, grossly unhealthy livestock practices, plus climate change and it would seem that outbreaks of diseases like bird flu (which can shut down society for months at a time) are inevitable. The spread of the West Nile virus, unseen in the
'People chose to believe, that everything could run unsustainably forever;
on avarice, fraud and clever marketing… and their children wept' Wolfgang A Jones
Until at last one small boy declared....."but he's not wearing anything – the king is naked"
The Emperors New Clothes
The Denial But surely if things were that bad everyone would be more concerned
– we couldn’t all just be ignoring the elephants in the living room could we?
When the emerging reality is so daunting, blanket denial seems a reasonable strategy for coping
Nobody wants to be an alarmist, the worse the situation the more the truth seems alarmist – so the less its told
There’s no money or promotion in telling it like it is and it don’t sell advertising.
No thanks I'm into positive thinking not doom & gloom
“Lifeboats weren’t needed because it was thought such a ship could never sink”
From the Titanic Inquiry
PEAK OIL PRIMER
It is estimated that the energy in one barrel of oil is equivalent to 12 men labouring for a year. (For $6 petrol you can drive a car the same distance it would take you 6 weeks to push it.). Our entire modern civilisation runs on the equation that our number one energy source is 'that cheap`.
Peak Oil describes the point in our industrial age when oil peaks in supply - the moment in time when the maximum amount of oil that ever will be supplied in a day to the world's markets occurs - after which a steady decline begins. Each point of decline, the price goes up and as the price goes up, the economic equations change.
The easiest, cheapest oil to extract has already been extracted. A lot of the infrastructure of the petroleum industry is aging. The demand for oil in the world is accelerating. Serious conflicts occur or are pending in the areas of the world where the most oil is produced. On the way up, post Peak Oil prices will occasionally go down in price due to a variety of factors, especially that high prices will reduce demand in part, (some countries already can't afford current high prices)
The Hirsch Report (US Department of Energy 2005) which is titled Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management concluded that price signals will arrive at least 10 years too late to enable a gentle, market-led transition away from oil to other energy sources. The report describes peak oil as an 'unprecedented 'challenge for modern societies, and describes economic, social, and political risks if preparation is not undertaken soon enough, or on an adequate scale: For Western societies dependent on supplies of cheap oil and gas, a rapid and unplanned for discontinuity in supply could be disastrous, affecting everything from food distribution to transportation, (and agriculture, supermarket shopping, computers, construction etc).
The problems associated with world oil production peaking will not be temporary, and past 'energy crisis 'experience will provide relatively little guidance. The challenge of oil peaking deserves immediate, serious attention, if risks are to be fully understood and mitigation begun on a timely basis. Mitigation will require a minimum of a decade of intense, expensive effort, because the scale of liquid fuels' mitigation is inherently extremely large. Intervention by governments will be required, because the economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be 'chaotic' Some writers call for a 'wartime mobilisation' engagement on a societal scale as the only appropriate response given the scale and severity of the challenge.
RICHARD HEINBERG considered one of the world's leading experts on Peak Oil was in the country recently as a guest of the EcoShow. He has studied peak oil from every angle and says despite promises from new industry sectors, there is no techno-fix that could come close to maintaining the status quo of our oil-addicted culture. So there is "No soft landing", he ruefully states. According to his calculations the peak was achieved 26 months ago. Consequently he predicts oil to be $100- $120 a barrel in 2008, a 20 - 40% increase on its September price of $80 a barrel. - Hang this on your projections for inflation and consumer spending. (looks like he is on track for this). Heinberg does not give into despair but seeks how a transition can be facilitated to minimise the disruptive effects of Peak Oil. While at the EcoShow Heinberg participated with James Samuel in two
Heinberg latest of his 10 books is ‘PEAK EVERYTHING: Waking Up to the Century of Declines. While in the country Heinberg was interviewed by radio and television and was well received. You can watch his NZ presentation here: http://deepgreen.co.nz/videos.php?movie=peakoil_part1.flv&group=peakoil His website: www.richardheinberg.com
Other web resources: www.energybulletin.net www.whatcomwatch.org www.theoildrum.com www.realclimate.org
The Way Forward
Putting our communities on a sustainable footing
RELOCALIZATION - the process by which communities localize their economies and essential systems, such as food and energy production, water, money, culture, governance, media, and ownership. This process will require that we rebuild our cities to severely reduce transport needs and support localization of essential systems - ecological city design provides as framework for this transformation. To effectively address energy scarcity and curtail biosphere destruction, relocalization must occur globally and with some degree of integration. Essentially human civilization needs to prepare itself to do less materially with much less energy and fewer natural resources, with the ultimate goal living within what is left of a reasonable carrying capacity, however reduced that may be. Any other approach can be considered a form of assisted suicide – with nature doing the assisting. Buying food from across the other side of the world may be a marvel of free trade but it is a gross waste of energy and reduces your food security both in terms of quality assurance and security of supply.
TRANSITION TOWNS - a rapidly growing network of places around the world where communities are forming local action plans to meet the coming challenges. These communities are unleashing their own latent collective genius to look Peak Oil and Climate Change squarely in the eye and to discover and implement ways to address this BIG question: "for all those aspects of life that this community needs in order to sustain itself and thrive, how do we significantly increase resilience (to mitigate the effects of Peak Oil) and drastically reduce carbon emissions (to mitigate the effects of Climate Change)?"
The use of a
One such town Totnes (UK) has introduced its own currency with notes that can only be spent in local shops. Its businesses are being audited by an accountant who provides a wakeup call by identifying parts of their operations that become unprofitable as oil prices rise. The town is planting nut trees which can provide emergency food and timber for construction while also acting as carbon sinks. Search Transition Towns on You Tube to find video information on Totnes & other Transition Towns including a great presentation by Jo Duff of the Sustaining Hawkes Bay Trust http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Transition+Towns&search=Search
Communities will also need to integrate in appropriate ways the experience and knowledge developed by existing organizations and individuals working on localization on both the policy and community levels, including science that supports localization efforts, and the practices of indigenous peoples that have not been lost. To save precious time & resources, communities will need to share experiments, outcomes, & lessons learned. This can include tapping the knowledge of our elders who still have valuable skills & know how from before the age of cheap oil whom can share with younger people providing an opportunity to reconnect our community. In good times or bad
“To be thrown upon one's own resources, is to be cast into the very lap of fortune; for our faculties then undergo a development and display an energy of which they were previously unsusceptible” Benjamin Franklin
SANE RESPONSE SNIPPETS
Cool Cities: All over
24 October. http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU0710/S00349.htm
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